National Security Challenges for the Next US President

Because of the current financial meltdown of the US economy and the attention that it has drawn from the national spotlight, key issues that normally define a US Presidential Election have been largely ignored by both the public and the press. This financial situation threatens to do great harm to our economy also has long term national security implications on top of the immediate consequences that will affect our pocketbooks and wallets; therefore the economy is of primary importance. When it comes to the economy however, it is the US Congress that plays a significantly greater role than that of the US President. While the President’s bully pulpit can be used to champion a limited number of important issues, the hundreds of bills and debates that take place in Congress, along with its interaction with other elements in the US economy, including Wall Street power brokers, has more to do with its day to day running and it more responsible for its health and well being. It is the Congressional approval rating by its constituency that more closely identifies with the current state of the economy than the approval rating of the President.

A close examination of the US Constitution reveals that the job and the chief responsibilities of the President is more in line with national domestic law enforcement, foreign policy, making treaties and the role as Commander in Chief of the US Armed Forces. The president is an administrator and a chief executive, whose ability to delegate authority and make command decisions based on sound judgment, defines the benchmarks of his or her performance rather than the state of the economy. While this description does not absolve the President from taking a certain amount of responsibility for the environment that affects the economy, it does place into perspective where attention needs to be drawn in both times of crisis and prosperity. In other words, Presidents get too much blame when the economy goes south and too much credit during times of great prosperity.

This misperception is no more apparent than with the case with President Clinton whom so many accredit to the great economic boom of the 1990’s. The truth of the matter lies more with two key events that transformed the nation. The first breakthrough that sent the stock market through the roof was the advent of the internet and all of its implications (Al Gore even took credit for that). The second was the first elected Republican majority in Congress in many decades that brought forth the Contract for America which helped balance the budget, secure welfare reform and other key fiscal issues. All these actions were performed in a bipartisan spirit, one that is seriously lacking today.

With that said, at least a small portion of the great Presidential debate should center on national security issues both political and economic and should not be relegated to the backburner of US politics. There are some national security issues that the next US President will have to immediately address based on the following assumptions: one the economic crisis will severely limit the presidents options regarding many national security issues including the projection of force to protect our assets abroad as well as at home and two: historically America’s enemies will test the reaction and resolve of the new president very early in the next administration just as the Soviets did with Kennedy and Carter and Saddam Hussein with Bush the First and al Qaeda with both Clinton and Bush the Second.

The next US President will faced a multi pronged challenge emanating from three fronts. The first test will come from Iran and its proxy Hezbollah as they get closer to developing a nuclear device which will force Israel’s hand in the matter. Iran has a close alliance with Hugo Chavez of Venezuela. Chavez is now providing bases of operation for Hezbollah and other terrorist groups such as the FARC This is one of several intrusions into Latin America by US’ adversaries that will threaten our southern border Contrary to what many believe, Iran’s close ties with al Qaeda before and after 9/11 imply a far more sinister deception about to take place in the next eighteen months.

The second storm will come from Moscow as Vladimir Putin is determined to gain political hegemony in Eastern Europe. Russia hopes to divert the United States attention away from Eastern Europe by gaining a foothold in Latin America. Russia’s close alliance with Venezuela to whom they have sold billions of dollars in arms and are basing troops, strategic aircraft and naval units seriously threatens to erupt into another “Cuban Missile Crisis”. Russia is also providing funding and weapons to Iran as well as a subtle attempt at undermining the pro US government in Mexico by supporting ultra violent paramilitary drug cartels (1). The violence there has already spilled over the US-Mexican border and must be addressed quickly before it gets completely out of hand.

The third and perhaps most important crisis will come from the threat the People’s Republic of China poses to US political and economic interests at home and abroad. Now that the 2008 Olympics are over, China will become even more bellicose, aggressive and demanding as the US debt with that country spirals out of sight. Beijing will alsotake more forceful political action in Latin America where it has placed billions of dollars of influence money and investment into those countries infrastructures. China has established and secured port facilities in many Latin American countries allowing People Liberation Army free reign to conduct covert operations that will solidify its political base which will be used to export Marxist style revolution. China also threatens to close the technology gap in our Defense Establishment through the use of espionage. Every two weeks, the US Department of Justice releases the results of espionage trials of Chinese Nationals, Chinese Americans or natural born Americans convicted of spying for the Peoples Republic (2). Most of these spies work in defense industries have high level security clearances and are selling US secrets to Chinese operatives, mostly out of fear of reprisals for their families back in Asia. Various estimates place the number of Chinese spies in the area of thousands depending whose information you go by. For those not convinced of China’s sinister intentions toward the US, consider the fact that since 1949, the Communist government of China has been responsible for the deaths of forty to seventy million of its own citizens as a result of coercion to government programs such as the Great Leap Forward, The Cultural Revolution and forced collectivization. Prison camps, gulags and labor camps were destinations for political malcontents disagreeing with the government. Imagine how they feel about Americans.

The challenges facing the next US President will be immense and will probably determine America’s course for many decades to come. The next president will also have to be informed by the RIGHT (as in correct sources) in educating themselves in regards to these national security threats. Unfortunately The State Department, numerous intellectual think tanks in Washington DC and many in the American international business community are frighteningly naïve at best on these issues. The next president will have to “connect the dots” in order to outline a clear picture of how America’s enemies collectively seek her destruction. Even the US Intelligence Community and Defense Establishment are often divided on these matters, making it even more important to have a president who is an independent thinker who acts not on political expediency but rather on what is best for the country. The next US President will have to exhibit courage, commitment and competence in recognizing both immediate and long term threats to America’s national security and must place country above party and self, initiating sound and timely judgments to secure its future.

Useful References

(1)   Strategic Forecasting Inc. a.k.a. Stratfor - Geopolitical intelligence, economic, political, and military strategic forecasting | Stratfor :non subscribers can access weekly intelligence reports by logging on the website and signing up

(2)   Counterintelligence and Counterterrorism Centre is your one stop shop for up to date information on the current US threat environment.

THE NEW MEDIA JOURNAL is also very good at finding important stories relating to US national security, not found in the mainstream media